When predicting the possible ROI from an influencer campaign, the track record or past campaigns of the influencer can be quite vital. However, the weightage given to an influencer’s past campaigns and collaborations can depend on several factors:

1. Relevance: Look at the relevance of the past campaigns to your brand, product, or service. If an influencer’s previous campaigns were for similar products, that might indicate a higher probability of success.

2. Performance: Analyze the performance of the influencer’s past campaigns. High engagement and conversion rates in their previous campaigns could be indicative of a successful campaign with your brand.

3. Audience Overlap: Check if the influencer’s followers match your target audience. If there’s a significant overlap, campaigns from this influencer may yield better results.

4. Authenticity: Authenticity plays a crucial role in how influencers connect with their audience. If the influencer maintained their unique voice and authenticity during past collaborations, this can lead to better audience response and higher ROI.

Tools like Flinque can aid brands and agencies in this analysis by providing in-depth analytics about an influencer’s performance history and audience demographics.

However, remember that past success doesn’t necessarily guarantee future results. Influencer marketing is dynamic, and many factors can influence the outcome of a campaign. Therefore, while giving due weightage to past campaigns is important, other aspects like the influencer’s current relevance, their relationship with their audience, and their alignment with your brand values should also be considered.

Different platforms may have different approaches in evaluating influencers. Always choose the one that aligns best with your brand’s needs and requirements.